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The new Plan confirms Hera’s investment case

InvestorNews

21/01/2026

Business Plan 2025-2029

Hera on stock exchange

The new Plan confirms Hera’s investment case

As financial markets face increasing uncertainty, there is growing demand for investment opportunities that offer a clear, visible story and a low risk profile. In this context, the new 2025-2029 Business Plan confirms that Hera ideally fits the profile.
Despite having already posted a gain of over 17% during 2025, Hera still offers attractive potential for further appreciation. This is proven by analysts, who at the time of the Plan’s release – therefore, before factoring in its new messages – were showing an average target price of 4.43 euro. This is also suggested by the Plan itself, which envisages an average Total Shareholder Return of 10% in the 2025-2029 period, as a result of expected earnings growth of around 6% per year on average and a dividend yield of around 4%.
While the high multiples reached by technology stocks seem to be raising some concerns among investors, Hera, which today has a Price/Earnings of approximately 12.8 times, appears to be an inexpensive company compared to the same multiples at which it has historically traded – 14.6 times over 10 years – and with a credible commitment to continue to offer attractive returns in the future.
Building on the high visibility of returns expected from investments and the low-risk profile that will continue to inspire the management style of the multi-utility portfolio, the new Plan has also strengthened the dividend distribution policy, with dividends in the final two years of the five-year period expected to increase by 1 euro cent per share each year. Starting from 16 euro cents, which will be proposed for distribution in 2025, Hera therefore expects to reach 19 euro cents in 2029.

Jens Klint Hansen

 
 

 

What is the picture of broker consensus ahead of incorporating the news in the 2025-2029 Plan?
The consensus target price improved after the release of the first nine-month results: two analysts raised their valuations. One of the two also upgraded his recommendation from Hold to Buy. So, today, we have two brokers valuing Hera at 4.70 euro, while the two lowest valuations remain at 4.10 euro. This target-price picture translates into a set of recommendations that are predominantly Buy-oriented, from four analysts, against two Neutral suggestions. We have no analysts recommending to sell Hera’s shares. Therefore, even before fully assessing the Plan, our analyst coverage largely believes that at current price levels there is still meaningful upside potential for the stock.

 

Broker Rating Target Price (€)
Banca Akros Accumulate 4.10
Equita Sim Buy 4.70
Intermonte Neutral 4.50
Intesa Sanpaolo Neutral 4.10
Kepler Cheuvreux Buy 4.70
Mediobanca Outperform 4.50
Average   4.43

 

Do you think the messages of the new Plan will have an impact on the stock?
Over time, we have often seen that the presentation of a new Plan carries significant weight. That is only natural: it represents a moment in which analysts and investors reassess their expectations. I guess this will be the case on this occasion as well. The strategic framework is fully confirmed compared to the previous Plan, but we are now facing an even more challenging scenario to be addressed through our investments.
Moreover, we have to communicate the evidence of two years of delivery by the new management team, with 2025 results showing a 4% increase in earnings per share and an enviable level of financial strength, considering that the Debt-to-EBITDA ratio at the end of December 2025 was below 2.6x. I believe that a Plan, like the one approved today, which includes a commitment to a 10% TSR, is an important signal of how central the investors are to the Company’s focus.

Which aspects of the Plan do you expect to be attractive to investors?
Beyond the set of targets, which in any case indicate a structural growth rate of 6% in average earnings that is by no means a given in the current context, I believe that it is the quality of those figures that will interest investors. Hera’s strong exposure to regulated businesses, which will absorb the largest share of investments, translates in high visibility on returns. We also have both the opportunity and the management capabilities to ride certain megatrends involving the utility sector: the demand for greater circularity, which we are ready to seize in Waste to strengthen our leadership, but also the growing electrification of consumption, the continuing push for decarbonization, the need to transform the state and the way network infrastructures work...
This Plan shows that we are not chasing a thousand opportunities: we know how to plan our investments wisely, to channel free cash flow into projects that will allow us to maintain a balanced portfolio structure, capable of offering attractive returns while keeping a controlled risk profile. Although the goals indicated in the Plan may be sufficient to justify investing in Hera stock, we expect the market to understand that we have the opportunity to go even further, considered the releveraging we can implement by maintaining conservative ratios. These are investments or acquisitions that we are unable to identify today, but which we have the resources to carry out when they materialise. Similarly, our dividend policy, which has been strengthened in the final years of the Plan, should be understood as a basis to which further remuneration may be added, should the annual results show higher earnings than currently forecast.

You are presenting the Plan in what looks likely to be a turbulent environment…
I believe that geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainties are leading investors to seek greater diversification across market segments from which to derive their returns in 2026. In 2025, stock markets were mainly driven by themes related to new technologies, mostly AI, with a strong concentration on relatively few stocks. Today, I believe that investors are seeking partly protection - with gold serving as a hedge - and partly diversification. They are more willing to look beyond Wall Street and increase the weighting of sectors other than tech, when they can offer visible earnings growth and dividend yields. In this sense, our position in the utility sector looks promising. We are also embarking on a roadshow that will take us to present our story to a wide range of international investors, at a time when Italy is enjoying an improved perception, as proven by Moody's upgrade of Sovereign Debt rating in November 2025.

Can you give us an overview of the type of roadshow you have organised to present this new Plan to investors?
We will be on the road for a whole month, covering a large number of financial centres, mainly with face-to-face meetings. We will certainly meet with the asset managers who are our shareholders, but we will also expand our reach to new investors, leveraging the collaboration also of new brokers.
We will try to provide comprehensive coverage of European markets: in addition to London and Paris, we will be in Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and The Nordics. We will return to Spain, where we had our first successful trip last year, and we will also meet with new investors in Monte Carlo. In the US, we will cover New York, Boston, and Chicago. We will also meet virtually with Australian investors. This is a significant commitment in terms of time and energy from Hera’s management team, which demonstrates our desire to have an open and proactive dialogue with current and potential shareholders to shed light on the equity story that this Plan represents.

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