Scenario and policies

Why it is important

The increase in global average temperature leads to consequences such as the gradual rise in sea levels, the retreat of glaciers and snow cover, and extreme weather events (floods and droughts), with increasing frequency and intensity. The effects go well beyond what the eye can see, reaching issues relating to genes, individual species and entire ecosystems that regulate life on the planet. This affects our environmental conditions with consequences for entire economic sectors and with significant social repercussions including health and migration. If action is not taken, by the end of the century, global warming could exceed the 2°C threshold set as a target by Cop21 and referred to by the UN in the 2030 Agenda.

An ambitious goal for 2030

The international agreement reached in Paris in 2015 (Cop21) commits European states to continue their efforts to limit the increase in temperature to just 1.5°C and in any case to keep below 2°C at global level. Europe has already achieved its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, with the industry and energy sectors contributing most. A 40% reduction target by 2030 has been confirmed. Italy is also well on track and the National Energy Strategy (2017) has brought the goal of reducing emissions in the non-ETS (Emission Trading Scheme) sectors to 33% by 2030.

Nonetheless, greater efforts are needed: according to the 2030 projections by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the 40% reduction target will not be reached by simply applying the measures currently envisaged.

Italy is lagging behind Europe, but close to the 2020 goal

The transport sector requires an even stronger effort

The transport sector alone accounts for almost a quarter of emissions at European level and more than half at Italian level. Eurostat and Istat data for 2015 show a significant increase in emissions compared to 1990 levels (+16% in Europe), due to a strong increase in the use of diesel. In 2016, the use of bicycles dropped at national level (-0.2%) and the use of public transport grew moderately (+0.7%) compared to 2012. The objectives of the Pon Città Metropolitane (2013) on the use of these means of transport – critical issues from a national viewpoint –  seem to be even more challenging today.